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科研入门 · 中英对照精读 · 02/05

可重复科学的宣言

Munafò et al. 2017 · Nature Human Behaviour | 英文原题 A manifesto for reproducible science
下划线 = 中文容易"变味"或丢信息的词句:实线带编号 = 39 条注释卡(点击跳转);虚线 = 另有 0 处同样有损耗、未单列。译文之后附完整英文原文

作者:Marcus R. Munafò、Brian A. Nosek、Dorothy V. M. Bishop、Katherine S. Button、Christopher D. Chambers、Nathalie Percie du Sert、Uri Simonsohn、Eric-Jan Wagenmakers、Jennifer J. Ware、John P. A. Ioannidis
出处:自然-人类行为(Nature Human Behaviour)2017;1:0021
DOI:10.1038/s41562-016-0021
PMCID:PMC7610724

译自英文原题:A manifesto for reproducible science

摘要

提升科学研究的可靠性与效率,将增强已发表科学文献的可信度,并加速发现进程。本文主张采纳一系列措施,以优化科学过程中的关键要素:方法、报告与传播、可重复性、评价与激励。来自模拟研究与实证研究的若干证据,支持这些措施可能确有成效,但它们要被研究者、机构、资助方与期刊广泛采纳,仍需反复评估与持续改进。我们讨论这些措施的目标,以及它们可以如何落实,希望以此促进各方采取行动,提升科学研究的透明性、可重复性与效率。

学科分类:社会科学

引言

已发表的研究中,有多大比例很可能是错误的?样本量偏小、效应量偏小、数据疏浚(亦称 P-hacking)、利益冲突、大批科学家在各自孤立的圈子里相互竞争而不联合其力量,诸如此类的因素,可能共同作用,使一项已发表发现为不正确的概率大幅升高[1]。元科学(metascience)——对科学本身所作的科学研究——这一领域正在蓬勃发展,并已为"知识积累的效率面临威胁"这一现象的存在与普遍程度,积累了大量的实证证据(文献 2,3,4,5,6,7;图1)。

来自众多领域的数据提示,可重复性低于人们所期望的水平[8,9,10,11,12,13,14];一项分析估计,85% 的生物医学研究投入被浪费掉了[14];而在《自然》(Nature)近期的一项调查中,90% 的受访者同意存在"可重复性危机"[15]。"危机"一词是否适合用来描述科学当前的状况或发展轨迹,尚有争议;但累积起来的证据表明,在研究实践方面仍有相当大的改进空间,以最大化研究界对公众科研经费投入的使用效率。

在此,我们提出一系列措施;我们相信,这些措施通过直接针对可重复科学所面临的具体威胁,将提升研究效率与科学发现的稳健性。我们主张采纳、评估并持续改进这些措施,以优化知识积累的速度与效率。这些措施被归入以下类别[16]:方法、报告与传播、可重复性、评价与激励。它们并不试图穷尽所有可能,而是提供一套宽泛、可行且基于证据的行动方案,可供研究者、机构、期刊与资助方实施。这些措施及其当前的实施情况,概述于表1。

表1 可重复科学的宣言。

主题 提议 举措/潜在解决方案示例(当前采纳程度) 利益相关方
方法 防范认知偏差 下列所有举措(* 至 **);设盲() 期刊、资助方
改进方法学训练 为未来的研究者提供统计与研究方法的严苛训练();为研究者提供统计与方法的严苛继续教育() 机构、资助方
独立的方法学支持 方法学家参与研究(**);独立监督(*) 资助方
合作与团队科学 多中心研究/分布式数据收集();团队科学联合体() 机构、资助方
报告与传播 推动研究预注册 注册报告();开放科学框架() 期刊、资助方
提升报告质量 使用报告清单(**);研究方案清单(*) 期刊
防范利益冲突 披露利益冲突(**);排除/隔离财务性与非财务性利益冲突() 期刊
可重复性 鼓励透明与开放科学 开放数据、材料、软件等(* 至 **);预注册(临床试验 ****,其他研究 *) 期刊、资助方、研究者
评价 让同行评议多元化 预印本(生物医学/行为科学 *,物理科学 ***);发表前与发表后同行评议,例如 Publons、PubMed Commons() 期刊
激励 奖励开放与可重复的实践 徽章();注册报告();透明度与开放性促进(TOP)指南();资助重复研究();招聘与晋升中的开放科学实践(*) 期刊、机构、资助方

问题所在

科学创造力的一个标志,是能够在数据中看到新颖而意想不到的模式。John Snow 确认了霍乱与供水之间的关联[17],Paul Broca 开展了关于语言侧化的工作[18],Jocelyn Bell Burnell 发现了脉冲星[19]——这些都是以新的方式解读观测结果而取得突破的例子。然而,科学家面临的一大挑战是:既要对新出现的重要洞见保持开放,又须同时避免被"我们在随机性中看见结构"的倾向所误导。错觉相关(apophenia,在随机数据中看到模式的倾向)、证实偏差(confirmation bias,倾向于聚焦与自身预期或偏好解释相一致的证据)与后见之明偏差(hindsight bias,倾向于在事件发生之后才认为该事件本来是可以预测的)三者叠加,很容易把我们引向错误结论[20]。Thomas Levenson 记述了这样一个例子:一些天文学家因为当时的理论预见了虚构行星"祝融星"(Vulcan)的存在,便确信自己已经观测到了它[21]。实验者效应(experimenter effects)就是这类偏差的一个例子[22]。

数据分析越是快速、灵活、自动化[23],对噪声的过度解读就越容易被促成。在一个高维数据集中,分析同一批数据的合理替代路径可能有数百条甚至数千条[24,25]。例如,Carp 在一项针对功能磁共振成像(functional magnetic resonance imaging, fMRI)研究的系统综述中表明,各研究采用的分析流程几乎与研究数目一样多,且互不相同[26]。若有数千条潜在的分析流程可以施加于高维数据,则假阳性发现的产生便极有可能。例如,把将近 7,000 条分析流程施加于同一个 fMRI 数据集,结果是在至少一项分析中出现显著激活的脑体素比例超过了 90%[27]。

在数据分析过程中,研究者往往难以识别 P-hacking[28] 或数据疏浚,因为证实偏差与后见之明偏差会促使他们把符合预期或愿望的结果当作恰当的结果接受下来,而把不符合预期或愿望的结果,归因于设计或分析不够理想而予以拒斥。假设也可能在数据之后浮现、恰好拟合数据,然后被报告出来,却既不说明、也没有意识到它的"事后"来源[7]。遗憾的是,这并不是科学发现,而是自我欺骗[29]。若不加控制,它会急剧提高错误发现率。我们需要一些措施,来对抗热衷发现的科学家的天性——那种在噪声中看见模式的天然倾向。

**[图1] 可重复科学所面临的威胁。**图中给出的是科学方法的假说-演绎模型的一个理想化版本。这一模型存在多种潜在威胁(以红色标示),包括缺乏重复研究[5]、在结果已知之后提出假设(HARKing)[7]、研究设计不佳、统计检验力偏低[2]、分析上的灵活性[51]、P-hacking[4]、发表偏倚[3]以及缺乏数据共享[6]。这些因素共同作用,会削弱已发表研究的稳健性,也可能影响科学自我纠错的能力。

方法

本节我们介绍在开展研究时可以实施的措施(包括,例如,研究设计、方法、统计学以及合作方式)。

防范认知偏差

关于认知偏差难以避免,已有大量文献。减轻自我欺骗与不良偏差的一种有效解决办法是设盲。在某些研究情境中,可以让受试者与数据收集者对受试者被分配到的实验条件、以及对研究假设处于盲态,同时可以让数据分析者对数据的关键部分处于盲态。例如,在数据准备与清理阶段,可以遮蔽实验条件的分组身份或变量标签,使输出的结果无法按研究假设来解读。在一些物理科学中,这一做法被进一步扩展,包括对数据施加刻意的扰动或加以遮蔽,以便在不使分析者看到相应结果的前提下完成数据准备工作(例如识别离群值)[30]。对研究设计、主要结局与分析方案进行预注册(见下文"推动研究预注册"一节),是一种极为有效的设盲形式,因为此时数据尚不存在,结局也尚未被知晓。

改进方法学训练

研究设计与统计分析相互依存。一些常见的误解——例如对 P 值的解读[31]、零假设显著性检验的局限[32]、统计检验力的含义与重要性[2]、所报告效应量的准确性[33],以及"产生了一项统计显著结果的样本量是否也足以重复一个真实发现"这一可能性判断[34]——都可以通过改进统计训练来加以解决。同样,基本的设计原则也很重要,例如以设盲减少实验者偏差、以随机化或抵消平衡(counterbalancing)控制混杂,以及在可能的情况下采用被试内设计以最大化检验力。然而可以说更为重要的是:就研究实践开展整合性训练,使人能够保护自己免受认知偏差与扭曲激励的影响。此外,统计与方法学的最佳实践处于不断的修订与改进之中,因此资深研究者与年轻研究者一样都需要持续的方法学教育;尤其是因为对早期职业研究者的许多训练是非正式的,源自其导师或指导者。方法论上的进步之所以未被采纳——例如统计检验力的提升极为缓慢[35,36]——部分原因可能就在于未能培育起一种持续的专业教育与专业发展的伦理。

在没有继续教育硬性要求的情况下,最有效的解决办法或许是开发那些易于获取、易于消化、并可立即有效地应用于研究的教学资源(例如围绕特定主题的简短网络课程模块,以及针对特定研究应用而定制的模块组合)。模块化的方式可以简化这些材料的迭代更新过程。演示软件与实操案例也可能让这些经验教训及其含义,对处于任何职业阶段的研究者都变得格外具体可感:实验设计助手(Experimental Design Assistant,https://eda.nc3rs.org.uk)为整体动物实验的研究设计提供支持,而 P-hacker(http://shinyapps.org/apps/p-hacker/)则展示出:利用分析上的灵活性来生成表面统计显著的发现,是何等容易。

落实独立的方法学支持

在某些领域,对独立方法学支持的需要已被充分确认——例如,许多临床试验设有跨学科的试验指导委员会(trial steering committee),负责提供建议并监督试验的设计与实施。这类委员会之所以需要,源于许多临床试验中众所周知存在财务性利益冲突。一项试验的申办方可能就是生产该产品的公司,任何有意或无意的影响都可能扭曲研究设计、分析以及结果的解释,最终为生产商谋取财务利益,而代价是科学的准确性与消费者的健康获益[37,38]。非财务性利益冲突同样存在,例如个别科学家的信念与先入之见,以及研究者为推进职业发展而必须在获取可发表结果上所下的赌注[39,40]。让独立研究者(特别是对某一研究主题并无个人利益牵涉的方法学家)参与研究的设计、监查、分析或结果解释,可以减轻其中一些影响;这既可以在单个研究项目层面做到,也可以通过资助机构推动的程序来实现(见框1)。

鼓励合作与团队科学

关于统计检验力的研究,持续发现其低于(有时远低于)50%,无论就时间跨度还是就所研究的各个学科而言都是如此[2,35,36]。统计检验力偏低会同时增加获得假阳性结果与假阴性结果的可能性[2],这意味着如果目的在于积累知识,它并不能带来任何好处。尽管如此,低检验力的研究依然存在,原因在于激励机制的失能、对低检验力后果的理解不足,以及缺乏改善检验力的资源。团队科学是解决后一个问题的办法——不再依赖单个研究者有限的资源,而是在许多研究地点之间开展分布式协作,从而促成高检验力的设计,并更有潜力去检验结果在所抽样到的不同情境与人群之间的可推广性。这也使更多的理论视角与学科视角、以及多样的研究文化与经验,能够被纳入研究项目之中。

多中心与协作性的努力,在一些领域已有长期而成功的传统,例如临床医学部分领域的随机对照试验,以及遗传关联分析;这些努力改善了由此产生的研究文献的稳健性。多地点协作项目也被倡导用于其他类型的研究,例如动物研究[41,42,43],以求最大化其检验力、增强标准化,并优化透明性与对偏差的防范。Many Labs 系列项目在社会科学与行为科学中展现了这种潜力:数十个实验室实施同一套研究方案,从而获得高度精确的效应量估计,并评估结果在不同样本与情境之间的变异[44,45]。把团队科学的精神融入学生培养也是可能的,而且是值得的(见框2)。

框1 独立监督:CHDI 基金会的案例

CHDI 基金会——一家以亨廷顿病(Huntington's disease)为靶标的、由私人资金资助的非营利药物研发机构——于 2013 年召集了一个工作组,以确定可以采取哪些切实可行的步骤,来帮助确保其研究的严谨性[76]。这次会议的一项具体成果,是设立了独立统计常设委员会(Independent Statistical Standing Committee, ISSC;http://chdifoundation.org/independent-statistical-standing-committee/),其宗旨是就实验设计与统计学的各个方面提供独立、无偏、客观的评价与专家建议。CHDI 已按优先原则把这一资源提供给更广泛的亨廷顿病研究界。ISSC 由在研究设计与统计学方面具有特定专长的个人组成。关键在于,委员会成员本人并不从事亨廷顿病研究,在研究结果上也没有投入,不存在其他利益冲突。该委员会提供多项服务,包括(但不限于)在研究方案与统计分析计划的制定上提供专家协助,以及对已准备好的研究方案进行评价。他们的监督与投入,特别是在研究设计阶段,可能减轻统计检验力偏低、研究设计不充分,以及数据分析与报告中的灵活性等问题[6,71]。正如近期有人所强调的,"在研究设计阶段提问,可以省去分析阶段的头痛:细致的数据收集能极大地简化分析,并使之更加严谨"[77]。

框2 分布式学生项目

学生的考核要求,以及对感兴趣人群的可及性有限,可能会妨碍在单一机构内部开展广泛的协作;但这种协作可以通过跨多个机构的形式来实现,即分布式学生项目。在这一模式下,来自若干机构的教师与学生将组成一个联合体,共同提出研究问题、研究方案与分析计划,并在数据收集之前公开预注册。该方案将由每个参与中心的每位学生各自实施,所得数据汇合后统一分析。数据收集前后的联合体会议,可以用来整合研究设计方面的训练,同时为学生提供创造性投入的机会。基于结果的结论将经各方共同商定,以备更广泛的传播,并采用包容性的作者署名惯例,例如遗传学联合体所采用的那些惯例。学生将通过积极参与研究来学习严苛的研究方法——这些研究的设计与实施足够良好,因而具有真实的意义。关键在于,协作式的团队科学将在培养的早期阶段就被植入。

协作式重复与教育项目(Collaborative Replications and Education Project, CREP;https://osf.io/wfc6u/)是这一理念在心理学中的一个例子,尽管其形式更为集中化。一个协调团队识别近期发表、可在为期一学期的本科研究方法课程背景下加以重复的研究。一个中心化的公共资源库提供材料与指导,以便把重复研究纳入课程项目或课堂;各地点收集的数据则汇总成为可发表的手稿。Pipeline[78] 与 Many Labs[44,45] 项目也提供了机会,使人们能够参与大规模的重复研究,同时在许多地点同步协调数据收集。


▲ 本部分翻译难点(对照学习用)

〔注1〕
原文
reproducible science
直译
可重复的科学
失味点
英文 reproducibility 在本宣言语境中指"用同一批数据、同一套代码与方法,换个人也能重现同样的分析结果"(methods 层面的可重复);而中文"可重复"通常被理解为"别人照我的做法再做一遍也能得到同样结果",那其实是 replicability。标题若不加辨析,读者会把整篇宣言误读成"一份关于多做重复实验的倡议书",而本文的核心诉求恰恰是数据与代码的可得、分析方案的预先写死。
学习提示
记三词——repeatability(同一人、同一实验室、短时间内重复测量得到一致结果,即"重测一致性")、reproducibility(同一数据与代码,换人重跑分析得到一致结果)、replicability(重新收集新数据、按同一方案再做一次,得到一致结论)。本文标题取狭义"可重复",但正文中三个概念时常交叉出现,这是全文最容易读歪的地方。 **
〔注2〕
原文
There is some evidence ... supporting the likely effectiveness
直译
有一些证据支持其可能有效
失味点
some evidence 是"有一些(而非充分的)证据",likely effectiveness 是"很可能有效";两层限定都是作者刻意保留的审慎态度。中译若写成"证据支持这些措施的有效性",就把两层不确定性同时压平,把一篇立场克制的宣言读成了断言。
学习提示
方法学论文中 some / may / likely / suggest 是作者的证据等级声明,不是客套话。 **
〔注3〕
原文
false(What proportion of published research is likely to be false?)
直译
假的
失味点
此处的 false 指"该结论不成立、是假阳性",不是"造假(fabricated)"。中文若译成"虚假",会滑向学术不端的含义,而本文讨论的是统计与选择性报告造成的错误,不是欺诈。
学习提示
false finding ≠ fraud;一个诚实的科学家做出的假阳性结果,与造假是两件事。 **
〔注4〕
原文
data dredging (also known as P-hacking)
直译
数据疏浚/捞数据
失味点
dredging 原意是"在河底拖网反复捞取",形象地指把数据反复翻捞直到捞出显著结果;中文若译作"数据挖掘",则与中性的 data mining(数据挖掘技术)撞车,褒贬完全相反。
学习提示
data mining 中性;data dredging / P-hacking / fishing 均为贬义,指利用分析自由度把 P 值压到 0.05 以下。 **
〔注5〕
原文
metascience(后文亦作 metaresearch)
直译
元科学
失味点
中文前缀"元"有"关于自身"(如元分析式的自指)与"超越"(如形而上学)两种联想,读者容易把 metascience 误解为"超越科学的伪科学";本文此词实指"以科学方法研究科学活动本身"。
学习提示
metascience ≈ metaresearch ≈ research on research(研究之研究),与 meta-analysis(荟萃分析,一种统计合并方法)不是同一概念,虽同用 meta-。 **
〔注6〕
原文
'reproducibility crisis'
直译
可重复性危机
失味点
作者给 crisis 加了引号,紧接着又写"是否恰当尚有争议(debatable)"。中文若省去引号,读者会把"危机"当作作者的判断,而作者实际态度是"这个说法流行,但值得商榷"。
学习提示
引号、斜体、破折号在英文学术写作中常是作者的态度标记,翻译时不能当作排版装饰丢掉。 **
〔注7〕
原文
substantial room for improvement
直译
有相当大的改进空间
失味点
这是英文典型的低调陈述(understatement),字面温和而语气其实很重,实际含义接近"现状确实很糟"。中文"改进空间"同样偏委婉,字面对得上,但读者极易低估其严重程度。
学习提示
英文学术写作常用 understatement 表达强判断;反过来,中文"有待完善"在英文里可能是 seriously flawed。 **
〔注8〕
原文
robustness
直译
稳健性
失味点
统计学中的 robust 专指"对假设违背不敏感"(例如对异常值稳健的估计量),而此处 robustness 是泛指的"结论经得起检验、不易被推翻"。中文"稳健"在金融、统计语境另有专义,容易造成技术性误读。
学习提示
读到 robust / robustness 先问一句:是统计学意义上的抗违背,还是日常意义上的可靠? **
〔注9〕
原文
while simultaneously avoiding
直译
同时避免
失味点
while 在此不是"当……的时候",而是表对照、表张力(既要开放,又要防自欺);simultaneously 进一步强调这两种要求彼此拉扯。中译若只写"并且",就变成两个并列的普通要求,读者感受不到其中的两难。
学习提示
学术英语中的 while / whereas 十有八九是"对照"义,不是时间状语;译成"而"通常比译成"当……时"准确。 **
〔注10〕
原文
apophenia
直译
在随机数据中看到模式
失味点
中文无公认译名,"错觉相关"容易被与"虚假相关(spurious correlation)"混同;后者是数据中的统计假象,前者是人的认知倾向,一个是"数据有假",一个是"人脑爱脑补"。
学习提示
apophenia 属认知层面;confirmation bias 属动机与注意层面;hindsight bias 属记忆与归因层面。本文把三者并列,正是因为它们在不同环节各自为害。 **
〔注11〕
原文
HARKing(hypothesizing after the results are known,图1图注中首次出现)
直译
结果已知之后提出假设
失味点
中文常见的"事后假设""事后解释"丢掉了 HARKing 作为"已被命名的可疑研究行为(questionable research practice, QRP)"的身份,读起来像中性的方法描述,而非一项指控。同类构词还有 CARKing(评审者在结果已知之后提出批评)。
学习提示
HARKing 与探索性研究的区别,不在于"是否看了数据",而在于"是否如实声明这个假设是先验的还是事后的"。 **
〔注12〕
原文
blinding
直译
设盲、盲法
失味点
中文"盲法"是名词(一种设计类型),"设盲"是动词(使某人处于不知情状态),英文 blinding 兼指两者,译文需按句意选取。更要紧的是:blind 的对象(受试者、干预实施者、结局评估者、数据分析者)必须写明,只写"采用盲法"几乎不携带信息。
学习提示
读 RCT 报告时,第一个要问的问题不是"盲了没有",而是"谁被设盲了"。 **
〔注13〕
原文
pre-registration;Registered Reports
直译
预注册;注册报告
失味点
中文"预注册"容易与"临床试验注册(trial registration,只登记研究的存在)"混同;本文的预注册强调"在见到数据之前就把设计与分析方案写死",是强度高得多的承诺。Registered Reports 是一种期刊出版格式(结果出来之前就原则性接受),不是"已经登记过的报告"。
学习提示
强度阶梯为 registration(登记)< pre-registration(预注册)< Registered Report(结果前接受发表)。 **
〔注14〕
原文
null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)
直译
零假设显著性检验
失味点
中文常简称为"显著性检验",缩写 NHST 反而少用;关键在于 significance 在英文里同时有"统计显著"与"重要性"两义,本文多处利用这一双关进行反讽(如"统计显著却不重要"),中译一律只能取"显著"一支,反讽的味道因此损失。
学习提示
统计语境中的 significant 一律读作"统计显著",不要读成"重要";反过来,作者说"这个结果很重要"时,未必指 P < 0.05。 **
〔注15〕
原文
statistical power;low-powered research
直译
统计检验力;低检验力的研究
失味点
中文有"统计功效""检验效能""检验力"多种译法,其中"功效"极易与药效、疗效(efficacy)混淆;而 power 的确切含义是 1−β,即"若真实差异存在,检测到它的概率"。underpowered 应译"检验力不足",它不等于"样本量小"——样本量小只是原因之一,效应量小而变异大同样会造成检验力不足。
学习提示
power 是一个概率,不是效应大小,也不是样本量。 **
〔注16〕
原文
effect sizes
直译
效应量
失味点
effect size 是一个统计量(标准化均值差 Cohen's d、Hedges' g、风险比 OR、相关系数 r 等),而"效应"在中文药理、生理语境里常被理解为"作用、反应",两者不是一回事。若只写"效应量"而不说清是哪一种,信息其实不完整。
学习提示
报告 effect size 时必须交代类型与置信区间;本文后面讲"效应量被高估",指的是已发表文献中 d 类指标的偏大偏倚。 **
〔注17〕
原文
rigor
直译
严格、严谨
失味点
中文"严谨"偏向"细致、不出错",是一种工作作风;英文 rigor 指的是"方法学上的严苛程度",是一个可被评价、可被制度化(如独立统计委员会)的质量维度,并且带有明确的正向价值判断。
学习提示
读方法学论文时 rigor 是核心评价维度,不可与"认真""仔细"等同;本文结尾"严谨性与可重复性"并列,指的是一整套可操作的标准。

报告与传播

本节我们介绍在传播研究时可以实施的措施(包括,例如,报告标准、研究预注册,以及利益冲突的披露)。

推动研究预注册

在临床医学中,对随机对照试验的研究方案进行预注册已成为标准做法[46]。其最简单的形式,可能只是登记基本的研究设计;但它也可以包括对研究程序、结局与统计分析计划的详细预先规定。预注册的引入是为解决两个问题:发表偏倚与分析上的灵活性(在临床医学中尤指结局调换)。发表偏倚[47],又称文件抽屉问题[48],指的是这样的事实:开展的研究远多于被发表的研究。获得阳性与新颖结果的研究,比获得阴性结果或报告对先前结果之重复的研究更可能被发表[47,49,50]。其后果是:已发表文献所显示的、支持某项发现的证据,强于现实中实际存在的证据。结局调换指的是这样一种可能:依据所观测到的结果,改变研究中受关注的结局。研究者可能纳入了十个可被视为研究结局的变量,而在结果已知之后——有意或无意地——把其中呈现统计显著结果的那部分结局挑选出来,作为受关注的结局。其后果是:借由偶然性提高了所报告结果为虚假结果的可能性,而阴性证据则被忽略。当分析决策是在已知观测数据的情况下作出时(例如模型的选择、排除规则与协变量的选择),能够夸大虚假发现的研究做法有多种,彼此相关,结局调换只是其中一种。这类依数据而定的分析决策,构成了如今被称为 P-hacking 的做法[51],而预注册可以防范上述所有问题。

预注册的最强形式,既包括登记该研究(并承诺把结果公开),也包括在开展研究之前、或在知晓研究结局之前,就紧密地预先规定研究设计、主要结局与分析计划。原则上,这通过使所有研究都可被发现(无论最终是否发表)来解决发表偏倚,从而使关于某项发现的全部证据都能被获取与评价。它同时也解决结局调换以及更一般意义上的 P-hacking,因为它要求研究者在观测数据之前就把分析决策表述清楚,使这些决策保持数据独立性。关键在于,它还清楚地划分了两种研究的界线:一种是数据独立的确证性研究,对检验假设十分重要;另一种是依数据而定的探索性研究,对生成假设十分重要。

虽然预注册在临床医学的某些领域如今已属常规(这源于期刊与监管机构的要求,例如美国食品药品监督管理局(Food and Drug Administration, FDA)与欧盟的欧洲药品管理局(European Medicines Agency, EMA)),但在社会科学与行为科学中仍属罕见。然而,对研究预注册的支持正在增加;开放科学框架(Open Science Framework,http://osf.io/)与 AsPredicted(http://AsPredicted.org/)等网站提供预注册研究的服务,预注册挑战(Preregistration Challenge)为开展预注册研究提供教育与激励(http://cos.io/prereg),一些期刊正在采纳注册报告(Registered Reports)这一出版格式[52,53],以鼓励预注册并加入结果盲的同行评议(见框3)。

提升报告质量

预注册将提升研究的可发现性,但可发现性并不保证可用性。可用性差,反映在难以评价究竟做了什么、难以复用该方法学来评估可重复性,也难以把证据纳入系统综述与荟萃分析。要解决这一点,就必须提升研究报告的质量与透明度。透明度与开放性促进(Transparency and Openness Promotion, TOP)指南提供了一套标准,作为期刊与资助方激励或要求研究与报告具备更高透明度的依据[54]。TOP 提出了提升透明度与可用性的原则,而其他指南则给出在特定领域最大化报告质量的具体步骤。例如,临床试验报告统一标准(Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials, CONSORT)声明为随机对照试验的清晰、完整、准确的报告提供了指导[55,56,57]。目前已有 300 多部报告指南,涵盖人体观察性研究、预后研究、预测模型、诊断试验、系统综述与荟萃分析、使用不同实验方法的多种研究,以及动物研究。EQUATOR 网络(http://www.equator-network.org/)汇集这些指南以提升其可发现性[58]。此外还有改进研究计划之报告的指南;例如,系统综述与荟萃分析首选报告条目(Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses, PRISMA)声明用于系统综述与荟萃分析的报告[59],PRISMA-P 则用于系统综述的研究方案[60]。预注册挑战的工作流程以及社会-行为研究的预注册配方[61],也展示了报告研究计划的指南。

报告指南能否成功,取决于它们是否被采纳以及是否被有效使用。社会科学与行为科学在采纳研究报告指南方面落后于生物医学科学;不过,随着期刊与资助方迅速采纳 TOP 指南及相关进展,这一差距或许正在缩小。然而,仅凭改进报告本身,可能并不足以最大化研究质量。研究者很容易把报告指南看作官僚主义的例行公事,而不是改进研究与报告的手段。即便在临床试验已有预注册的情况下,一项研究也观察到:只有 13% 的试验所发表的结局与预注册承诺完全一致。这些试验的大多数发表物并未报告预注册的结局,而是增加了不属于注册设计的新结局(见 www.COMPare-trials.org)。Franco 及其同事在心理学中也观察到类似发现[62];他们利用研究方案预注册以及社会科学分时实验项目(Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences,http://www.tessexperiments.org/)的公开数据,发现 40% 的已发表报告未能提及实验的一个或多个实验条件,约 70% 的已发表报告未能提及研究中纳入的一个或多个结局测量指标。此外,与纳入报告的结局指标相比,未被纳入报告的结局指标更可能是阴性结果,并且与更小的效应量相关联。

报告指南的正面结果是:它们使发现并研究这些行为及其影响成为可能。否则,这些行为根本无法以任何系统的方式被知晓。负面结果则是这样的实证证据:报告指南对于应对报告偏倚或许是必要的,但单凭它们并不充分。指南的影响,以及如何最好地优化其使用与影响,最好通过随机试验来评估(见框4)。

框3 注册报告

注册报告(Registered Reports, RR)这一举措旨在消除假说驱动型研究中的多种偏差[52,53],尤其是"依据结果来评价一项研究"的做法。与常规期刊论文不同,RR 把同行评议过程分成两个阶段:结果已知之前与结果已知之后。在第一阶段,审稿人与编辑评审一份详细的方案,其中包含研究理由、研究程序以及详细的分析计划。在评审意见良好(并且很可能需要修改,以达到严格的方法学标准)之后,期刊给予原则性接受:只要作者遵守被批准的方案、研究通过预先规定的质量检查、结论恰当地受证据约束,研究结局的发表即得到保证。研究完成之后,作者重新提交一份完整的手稿,其中包含结果与讨论。文章在这一两阶段过程的末尾发表。通过在结果已知之前接受文章,RR 防止了发表偏倚。通过预先评议假设与分析计划,RR 还应有助于抵消作者的 P-hacking 与 HARKing(在结果已知之后提出假设),以及审稿人自身在研究结果上有投入时所作的 CARKing(在结果已知之后提出批评)——不过要确认情况确实如此,仍需实证证据。

对 RR 最常见的反对意见或许是:这种格式要求作者遵循预先规定的方法学,从而在某种程度上限制了探索或创造性。然而,RR 对创造性的分析实践或意外发现(serendipity)并不施加任何限制。作者可以自由报告任何未注册的探索性分析的结果,只要这类检验被明确标注为事后(post hoc)分析。因此,唯一的要求是:探索性结局要被透明地标明为探索性的(常见问题清单见 https://cos.io/rr/#faq)。当然,RR 并不适用于纯粹探索性的研究。

截至 2016 年 11 月,已有 40 多家期刊采纳 RR,包括《自然-人类行为》(Nature Human Behaviour),覆盖生命科学、社会科学与物理科学的广泛领域(精选清单见 https://cos.io/rr/#journals)。这一概念还为另类的研究资助形式打开了大门——那种把透明性与可重复性置于优先位置的资助形式。例如,作者可以在尚未获得研究经费之前就提交一份详细的申请。经资助方与期刊同时评议之后,最优秀的申请将获得资助方的经费支持,并获得期刊的原则性接受发表(https://cos.io/rr/#funders)。

框4 报告指南有效性的证据

在医学中,有强有力的证据表明 CONSORT 指南是有效的——未背书 CONSORT 声明的期刊,其报告质量比背书该声明的期刊更差[79]。对于 ARRIVE(Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments,动物研究:体内实验报告)指南[80],比较指南发表前后特定研究领域中 ARRIVE 条目报告情况的研究,报告了参差不齐的结果[81,82,83]。目前有一项随机对照试验正在进行,以评估"在投稿时强制要求提交填好的 ARRIVE 清单"对已发表文章报告质量的影响(https://ecrf1.clinicaltrials.ed.ac.uk/iicarus)。这些努力要取得成功,需要期刊与资助方采纳指南,并支持学界的迭代评估与改进循环。

可重复性

本节我们介绍为支持对研究进行核实而可以实施的措施(包括,例如,共享数据与方法)。

推动透明与开放科学

科学是一项社会性事业:各自独立的研究团队与协作的团队共同努力,把知识作为公共物品加以积累。科学主张的可信度植根于支持该主张的证据,这些证据包括所应用的方法学、所获取的数据,以及方法学实施、数据分析与结局解释的过程。主张之所以变得可信,是因为学界对支持它的证据进行了评阅、批评、扩展与再现。然而,若没有透明性,主张就只能依靠对提出者的自信或权威的信任来获得可信度。透明优于信任。

开放科学指的是这样一个过程:使产生证据与主张的内容与过程对他人透明、可获取。透明是一种科学理想,因此再加上"开放"本应是多余的。而在现实中,科学常常缺乏开放性:许多已发表文章,对于没有个人订阅或机构订阅的人来说无法获取;支持研究结局的大多数数据、材料与代码,也没有被置于可访问之处,例如公共存储库(文献 63,64;框5)。

研究过程中极少有部分(例如研究方案、分析工作流程、同行评议)是可获取的,因为从历史上看,即便有人想让它可获取,机会也一直很少。这促发了对开放获取、开放数据与开放工作流程(包括分析流程)的呼吁,但要达到这些理想存在实质性障碍,包括既得的财务利益(尤其在学术出版领域),以及研究者从事开放实践的动力不足。例如,当前的激励结构鼓励发表"干净"的叙事,而这可能要求对研究程序或结果作不完整的报告。尽管如此,变化正在发生。TOP 指南[54,65]倡导开放实践,同时越来越多的期刊与资助方要求开放实践(例如开放数据),其中一些还为其研究者提供免费、即时、且带有透明的发表后同行评议的开放获取发表(例如惠康基金会(Wellcome Trust)随 Wellcome Open Research 的创刊所提供者)。促进开放科学的政策可以包括报告指南或具体的披露声明(见框6)。与此同时,商业性与非营利性组织正在建设新的基础设施,例如开放科学框架,以使透明对研究者而言既容易又值得追求。

框5 数据共享

把数据共享到公共存储库,在问责、数据寿命、效率与质量方面带来领域范围内的好处(例如,再分析可能发现关键性错误,甚至发现数据伪造)[84]。遗憾的是,许多科学学科,包括大多数致力于研究人类行为的学科,并不具备重视开放数据的文化[6]。在过去,数据共享极少被强制执行或得到便利。不过,近来的举措旨在改变这种规范性的文化。但愿这些举措将改变数据共享方面的文化。一旦被接受为常规,我们怀疑数据共享是否会过时。

透明度与开放性促进(TOP) 2015 年,Nosek 及其同事[54]提出了作者指南,以帮助期刊与资助方采纳透明性与可重复性政策。截至 2016 年 11 月,已有 757 家期刊与 64 家机构签署 TOP 指南。例如,期刊《科学》(Science)决定"仅在分析所用数据可供任何研究者用于再现或扩展该分析时,才发表论文"[65],施普林格-自然(Springer Nature)旗下的期刊群也采纳了类似的数据共享政策。

认可开放科学实践的徽章 开放科学中心(Center for Open Science)建议期刊给具有开放数据的文章颁发徽章(也颁发给预注册、开放材料等其他开放实践)。徽章的主要用途是表明该期刊重视这些实践。期刊《心理科学》(Psychological Science)已采纳这些徽章,并且有证据表明开放数据徽章产生了积极效果,使数据共享增加了十倍以上(图2)。

同行评议者开放倡议 签署这一倡议(https://opennessinitiative.org)的研究者承诺:作为审稿人,对于任何没有给出明确理由却未公开数据的手稿,他们不提供全面评审[85]。

资助机构的要求 近年来,一些重要的资助机构,例如英国的英国研究理事会(Research Councils UK)以及美国的国立卫生研究院(National Institutes of Health, NIH)与国家科学基金会(National Science Foundation, NSF),加大了要求研究者共享数据的压力。例如,2015 年 NIH 公共获取计划(https://grants.nih.gov/grants/NIH-Public-Access-Plan.pdf)指出:"NIH 打算把对数字科学数据的公共获取,作为所有 NIH 资助研究的标准"。自 2010 年起,NSF 要求提交数据管理计划,其中规定数据将如何存储与共享。

框6 披露

完整披露指的是这样一个过程:完整描述作为所报告结果之基础的研究设计与所收集的数据,而不是描述一个经过修剪的设计版本,和/或所收集数据的一个子集。披露的必要性是清楚的:为了充分评价结果,我们需要知道这些结果是如何获得的。例如,一个表现出所关注效应的因变量,其信息价值在"只收集了一个变量"与"收集了十五个变量"两种情形下是不同的。单个变量仅凭偶然达到 P < 0.05 的概率是 5%,而十五个变量中有一个达到 P < 0.05 的概率是 54%[1]。显然,从十五个变量中挑樱桃(cherry-picking)挑出一个,会使结果失效——除非读者清楚这件事确实发生过。如果读者知道,他们便能相应地调整自己的解读。由这一简单事实可以推出:如果作者不告诉我们他们收集的是一个还是十五个变量,读者就无法评价他们的研究[51]。

最简单的披露形式,是作者通过文章中的明确陈述向读者保证:他们正在完整地披露数据。这可以被视为一条简单的报告指导条目,其中对某些被认为最需要披露的方面给予了额外强调。例如,纳入下面这句由 21 个词构成的陈述:"我们报告我们如何确定样本量、所有数据排除情况(若有)、所有操作,以及研究中的所有测量"[86]。另一种更复杂、但也更可执行、更可问责的做法,是期刊要求作出明确而具体的披露声明。例如,期刊《心理科学》现在要求作者"确认(a)被排除的观测总数,以及(b)作出这些排除的理由,均已在方法部分中报告"[87]。


▲ 本部分翻译难点(对照学习用)

〔注18〕
原文
publication bias;the file drawer problem
直译
发表偏倚;文件抽屉问题
失味点
bias 在中文统计学中译"偏倚",在日常语言中译"偏见",两者情感色彩差别很大——发表偏倚是一种系统误差机制,不是审稿人的主观成见。file drawer 的画面是"把做不出结果的研究塞进抽屉、永不投稿",中文"抽屉问题"丢掉了这一画面。另需注意:bias 在流行病学中涵盖选择偏倚、信息偏倚等,与 confounding(混杂)是两个不同概念,不可互换。
学习提示
偏倚(bias)= 系统性偏离真值;混杂(confounding)= 第三变量的混合效应;二者都译"偏",但机制完全不同。
〔注19〕
原文
outcome switching
直译
结局调换
失味点
outcome 在临床试验语境固定译"结局"(primary outcome = 主要结局),但中文"结局"的日常义是"最终下场",读者容易读成"研究的结局被换掉了"。此外 outcome measures(结局测量指标)与 endpoints(终点)在监管文件中并不完全同义,也不宜一律译"终点"。
学习提示
看到 outcome 先判断语境——临床试验=结局;一般研究=结果或测量指标。
〔注20〕
原文
data-contingent analysis decisions
直译
依数据而定的分析决策
失味点
contingent on 意为"以……为条件、取决于",不是"偶然的"。中文"依数据而定"尚可,但若译成"与数据相关的",就丢掉了"决策被数据牵着走"的因果含义,而这正是 P-hacking 的要害:不是分析了数据,而是分析的走向由看到的数据决定。
学习提示
data-independent(数据独立)/data-contingent(依数据而定)是本文划分确证与探索的关键一对词,务必对照记忆。
〔注21〕
原文
confirmatory research/exploratory research:verification
直译
确证性研究/探索性研究;核实
失味点
中文常把 confirmatory 译作"验证性",但 verification(核实、照原样复核)与 confirmation(确证、获得支持性证据)在科学哲学中是两个层次:前者问"重跑能否得到同样结果",后者问"新证据是否支持该假说"。本文在"可重复性"一节用 verification,在"预注册"一节用 confirmatory,中文若都译作"验证",两处逻辑就塌成一处。
学习提示
确证(confirmation)=假说获得支持;核实(verification)=过程与结果被独立复核;证实(corroboration)=波普尔意义上的"暂未被证伪"。
〔注22〕
原文
results-blind peer review
直译
结果盲的同行评议
失味点
blind 在此不是"盲法(blinding,隐藏干预分配)",而是"评审时看不到结果";中文"结果盲审"极易被误解为"盲审(作者与审稿人互不知情)"。
学习提示
blind 在论文里有三种互不相同的制度——设盲(分配隐藏)、盲审(身份隐藏)、结果盲(只评方案不评结果)。
〔注23〕
原文
usability;discoverability
直译
可用性;可发现性
失味点
usability 在人机交互领域固定译"可用性"(易用程度),此处指的是"别人能不能把你的研究拿去用"(复算、纳入综述与荟萃分析);discoverability 则是"能否被检索到"。二者不是一回事:能被搜到 ≠ 能被用起来,而这正是本文"预注册提升可发现性,却不提升可用性"这一论断的关节。
学习提示
读到 "-ability" 系列词(discoverability/usability/reproducibility/generalizability)时,先确认它是针对谁的属性。
〔注24〕
原文
in-principle acceptance
直译
原则性接受
失味点
中文"原则性同意/原则性接受"在外交与公文语境中常暗示"原则上同意、具体不保证",语义强度偏弱,甚至带敷衍意味;而此处恰恰相反,是"只要按批准方案执行就保证发表"的硬承诺。
学习提示
in principle 在英文法律与合同语境中表示"有约束力的原则上可行";in-principle acceptance 是注册报告的核心机制,切不可读成"初步接受、尚待确认"。
〔注25〕
原文
CARKing (critiquing after the results are known)
直译
结果已知之后提出批评
失味点
这是作者对 HARKing 的戏仿造词,中文若平译作"事后批评",就完全丢失了戏仿的锋芒——作者的立场是:审稿人自己也会犯同类错误,而这正是结果盲评审要防的。
学习提示
见 -ing 造词先找它在戏仿谁;HARKing/CARKing/P-hacking 属同一修辞家族,都靠"给不良做法起个响亮名字"来施加规范压力。
〔注26〕
原文
verification(support verification of research)
直译
核实
失味点
verification 与 validation 在中文方法学文献里都译"验证",但 verification 问"做对了没有(符合既定规格)",validation 问"做的是不是对的事(符合使用目的)"。本文此处的核实,指第三方能独立复核结果,而非"验证这项研究有没有价值"。
学习提示
软件与实验方法学中,verification/validation 的区分是标准考点,读中文译稿时尤须警惕两者被合并。
〔注27〕
原文
Transparency is superior to trust.
直译
透明优于信任
失味点
这是一个只有五个词的断言式短句,靠短促与对仗取胜;中译若扩写成"透明比信任更可靠、更值得依赖",断言的力量与节奏就都没了。
学习提示
遇到这类口号式短句,宁可保留短句的顿挫,也不要为"通顺"添加解释性词语。
〔注28〕
原文
adding 'open' should therefore be redundant
直译
因此加上"开放"本应是多余的
失味点
should 在此是"按理应当"的规范性情态,暗含"现实并没有做到"的批评;若译成"是多余的",就变成对"开放科学"这一提法本身的否定,与原意正好相反。
学习提示
should 有两种读法——义务(应当)与预期(按理说会)。此处取前者,且带反讽:既然透明是科学理想,"开放"二字本不该需要。
〔注29〕
原文
we doubt that data sharing will ever go out of fashion
直译
我们怀疑数据共享是否会过时
失味点
go out of fashion 是口语化表达(像衣服过季),语气轻松、带有信心,且与前后文的严谨论证形成语域落差;中文"过时"偏书面,"不再流行"又太轻飘,难以复现这种突然放松的语气。
学习提示
学术写作并非全程同一语域;口语化表达往往出现在作者最有把握、最想表态的地方,是重要的修辞信号。
〔注30〕
原文
cherry-picking
直译
挑樱桃
失味点
中文"挑樱桃"不成词,通常意译为"挑选数据/择优报告",但这样一来,"从一堆里专挑最甜的那几颗"的画面就丢了,作为学术不端边缘行为的贬义色彩也随之淡化。
学习提示
cherry-picking、fishing、dredging 属同一隐喻家族(采集与捕捞),共同指向选择性报告;记住这一家族,读到任一成员都能立刻反应过来。

评价

本节我们介绍在评价研究时可以实施的措施(包括,例如,同行评议)。

同行评议的多元化

在科学出版史的绝大部分时间里,两种功能一直被混同在一起——评价与传播。期刊通过筛选并把内容送达研究共同体来提供传播,又通过同行评议来把关,判定什么值得传播。然而,随着互联网的到来,研究者个人不再依赖出版者来装订、印刷并把他们的研究邮寄给订阅者。传播如今变得容易,并且可以由研究者自己掌控。例如,预印本服务(部分物理科学领域的 arXiv,生命科学领域的 bioRxiv 与 PeerJ,工程领域的 engrXiv,心理学领域的 PsyArXiv,以及社会科学领域的 SocArXiv 与社会科学研究网(Social Science Research Network, SSRN))便于研究在发表之前被轻松共享、排序与发现。这极大地加快了信息向研究共同体传播的速度。

随着传播日益便利,出版者作为把关人的角色正在衰落。然而,出版的另一种角色——评价——仍然是研究事业中不可或缺的部分。按惯例,期刊编辑会选定数量有限的审稿人,来评估一份投稿是否适合该特定期刊。不过,如今正在出现更为多元的评价过程,使科学共同体的集体智慧得以被利用[66]。例如,一些预印本服务支持对手稿的公开评论,这是一种可用于改进手稿的发表前评议形式。另一些服务,例如 PubMed Commons 与 PubPeer,提供对已发表作品作评论的公开平台,促进了发表后同行评议。与此同时,一些期刊正在试行“无结果”评议(‘results-free’ review),即编辑的接收决定仅依据对研究理由与研究方法的评议(也就是说,结果盲[67])。

发表前与发表后的同行评议机制,都会极大地加快并扩展评价过程[68]。通过共享预印本,研究者可以从多元的共同体那里迅速获得对其工作的反馈,而不必在传统的、封闭的同行评议过程中等待数月,只为得到少数几份评审意见。借助发表后服务,评议者可以即时对文章作出正面与批评性的评论,而不必依赖撰写一篇评论并投给出版期刊、指望其最终得以发表这一费力、不确定且漫长的过程。

作为发表前与发表后评议的公开形式,这些新服务带来了获得新型认可与提升声誉的可能[69]。在传统模式中,同行评议是私下、匿名、纯粹作为一项服务来完成的。在公开评论系统中,选择具名的评议者可能因评议质量而获得(或失去)声誉。非匿名评议存在若干可能的风险与被感知到的风险,评审人必须加以考虑,研究也必须对此加以评估;但有证据表明,公开的同行评议能提高所收到评议的质量[70]。加快学术交流的机会,可能既加快发现的步伐,也使参与科学论辩的方式多样化。

激励

发表是学术科学的通货,它提高获得聘用、经费、晋升与终身教职的可能性。然而,并非所有研究都同样可发表。阳性的、新颖的与“干净”的结果,比阴性结果、重复性研究与仍留有未了问题的结果更可能被发表;其后果是,研究者被激励去生产前者,哪怕以牺牲准确性为代价[40]。这些激励最终提高了已发表文献中假阳性结果的可能性[71]。因此,改变激励就为提升已发表结果的可信度与可重复性提供了机会。例如,Munafò 与 Higginson 用模拟方法建立了一个最优性模型,该模型预测了在最理性的研究策略下,用于寻求新颖结果的研究投入与用于确证性研究的投入各应占多大比例,以及每项探索性研究应投入多少研究工作量[72]。该模型表明:对于从科学文献中导出的参数取值而言,以使自身“适应度”最大化为行动准则的研究者,应当把大部分精力用于寻求新颖结果,并开展统计检验力仅为 10–40% 的小型研究。关键在于,他们的模型提示:如果在聘任与晋升决策中更多地考虑研究者的总体产出、而对引人注目的新颖发现给予更少权重,从而改变激励结构,将会促使研究者行为发生变化,并最终提升研究的科学价值。

资助方、出版者、学会、机构、编辑、审稿人与作者,都参与了那些制造并维系失能性激励的文化规范的形成。因此,改变激励是一个需要所有利益相关方协同努力以改变奖励结构的问题。对创新性成果的激励将始终存在——发现新事物的人会比没有发现的人得到更多奖励。然而,对效率与效果的激励也可以存在——开展严谨、透明、可重复研究的人,可以得到比不这样做的人更多的奖励。已有一些有希望的、能“轻推”(nudge)激励的有效干预的例子。例如,期刊正在采纳徽章以认可开放实践(图2)、把注册报告作为结果盲的出版模式(见框3)、以及用 TOP 指南促进开放与透明。资助方也在采纳透明度要求,并试点促进可重复性的资助机制,例如荷兰科学研究组织(Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, NWO)与美国国家科学基金会社会、行为与经济科学部都宣布了面向重复性研究的资助机会。各机构正在努力进行政策与基础设施方面的调整,以促进数据共享,并且已有开放科学实践开始被纳入聘用与绩效考核的迹象(例如,http://www.nicebread.de/open-science-hiring-practices/)。当这些努力在规模上汇聚起来,它们可以改变激励,使得对科学家有利的事同时也对科学有利——即产生可信结果的严谨、透明与可重复的研究实践。

**[图2] 引入数据共享徽章的影响。**2014 年 1 月,期刊《心理科学》(Psychological Science, PSCI)为附有开放数据的文章引入徽章。此后紧接着,附有开放数据的文章比例陡增;到 2015 年 10 月,《心理科学》中有 38% 的文章提供了开放数据。作为对照的期刊(《临床心理科学》(Clinical Psychological Science, CPS)、《发展心理学》(Developmental Psychology, DP)、《实验心理学杂志:学习、记忆与认知》(Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, JEPLMC)与《人格与社会心理学杂志》(Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, JPSP)),其附有开放数据的文章比例始终保持低水平。图改编自文献 75,PLoS。

结论

对可重复科学的挑战是系统性的与文化性的,但这并不意味着它们无法被应对。我们所描述的这些措施,构成了朝着提升严谨性与可重复性迈进的、实际可行且可实现的步骤。它们全都显示出了一定的有效性,并且很适合被更广泛地采纳、评价与改进。同样,这些提议并不是一份穷尽无遗的清单;还有许多其他新兴的与趋于成熟的设想,可以使研究实践更为高效与可靠[73]。为一个问题提供解决方案,并不保证该方案有效;而改变文化规范与激励,可能会激发出难以预料的其他行为变化。有些解决方案可能对科学的效率与可靠性无效、甚至有害,即便它们在概念上看似合理。

元科学(metascience,或称元研究 metaresearch)领域正在迅速成长,每年累积的相关出版物超过 2,000 篇[16]。其中大量文献构成对既有实践的评估以及对替代途径的识别。过去被视为理所当然的东西可能受到质疑,例如被广泛使用的统计方法;举例来说,功能磁共振成像(functional magnetic resonance imaging, fMRI)中用于空间范围分析的最流行的方法与软件,最近被显示会产生高得不可接受的假阳性率[74]。所提出的解决方案也可能引出其他挑战;例如,尽管重复是加固对科学结果之信任的标志性做法,但哪些研究值得重复、以及什么是最有效的重复策略,仍存在不确定性。此外,近期的一项模拟提示,仅靠重复或许不足以使我们摆脱虚假结果[71]。

这些告诫并非无所作为的理由。可重复的研究实践是可靠研究的核心,也是科学方法不可或缺的组成部分。如何最好地实现严谨而高效的知识积累,是一个科学问题;最有效的解决方案,将通过绝妙的假设与纯粹的运气之结合、通过对每一项变化之有效性的反复检验、以及通过从众多可能性中簸选出少数被广泛实施者的过程,而被识别出来。关于如何最好地组织科学并为科学提供激励的真正理解,将缓慢浮现,并且永远不会完成。科学就是这样运作的。要培育一门评估并改进实践的、强健的元科学,其关键在于:科学的利益相关方不得安于现状,而必须为改进与自我纠错而持续追求对科学过程本身的自我审视。

正如 Richard Feynman 所说:“第一条原则是,你绝不能欺骗自己——而你是最容易被自己欺骗的人。”

致谢

M.R.M. 是英国烟草控制研究中心(UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies)的成员,该中心是 UKCRC 公共卫生卓越研究中心之一。谨此感谢英国心脏基金会(British Heart Foundation)、英国癌症研究中心(Cancer Research UK)、经济与社会研究理事会(Economic and Social Research Council)、医学研究理事会(Medical Research Council)与国家卫生研究院(National Institute for Health Research)在英国临床研究协作组织(UK Clinical Research Collaboration)主持下提供的资助。本工作得到布里斯托大学医学研究理事会整合流行病学中心(Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol)的支持(MC_UU_12013/6)。D.V.M.B. 由惠康基金会首席研究员基金与研究计划资助(资助编号 082498/Z/07/Z)。N.P.d.S. 受雇于 NC3Rs,该机构主要由英国政府资助。J.P.A.I. 由 S. O'Donnell 与 B. O'Donnell 向斯坦福预防研究中心(Stanford Prevention Research Center)的无限制捐赠资助。METRICS 由劳拉与约翰·阿诺德基金会(Laura and John Arnold Foundation)的资助支持。作者感谢 Don van den Bergh 绘制图2。

利益冲突

M.R.M. 与 C.D.C、D.V.M.B. 一同获得了生物技术与生物科学研究理事会(Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, BBSRC)的资助(资助编号 BB/N019660/1),用于召集一次关于可重复科学先进方法的研讨会;M.R.M. 还担任 CHDI 基金会独立统计常设委员会(CHDI Foundation Independent Statistical Standing Committee)主席。B.A.N. 是公益机构开放科学中心(Center for Open Science)的执行主任,该机构的使命是提升研究的开放性、诚信与可重复性。N.P.d.S. 领导 NC3Rs 的实验设计工作项目,该项目开发了 ARRIVE 指南与实验设计助手(Experimental Design Assistant)。J.J.W. 是 CHDI 管理公司/CHDI 基金会的实验设计主任,该机构是一家专事亨廷顿病(Huntington's disease)疗法开发的非营利性生物医学研究组织。其他作者声明无利益冲突。

注:参考文献为著录信息,按学术惯例保留英文原文,见文末附录。


▲ 本部分翻译难点(对照学习用)

〔注31〕
原文
two functions have been confounded — evaluation and dissemination
直译
两种功能一直被混同在一起
失味点
confound 在流行病学与统计学中固定译“混杂”(confounding,第三变量同时与暴露和结局相关),是一个有精确定义的方法学术语;而此处用的是它的日常义“把本应区分的两件事搅在一起”。若全文统一译“混杂”,读者会以为在讲统计学;若统一译“混淆”,又会让下文真正的混杂因素无处落脚。
学习提示
一个词在同一篇论文里可能同时作术语与日常词使用,应按句子的论证功能判断,而不是全篇机械替换。
〔注32〕
原文
gatekeeping/gatekeeper
直译
把关/把关人
失味点
gatekeeper 的意象是“守在门口决定谁可以进来的人”。中文“把关”更接近质量管理(把住质量关),“守门人”又偏新闻学用语。本文的论证是“传播功能已可由研究者自理,故期刊作为把关人的角色在衰落”,若译作“审核”,就丢掉了“守门”这一空间隐喻,而这恰是论证的画面。
学习提示
gatekeeping 是科学社会学与传播学的固定概念,读到它要想“谁掌握着进入公共视野的闸门”。
〔注33〕
原文
Publication is the currency of academic science
直译
发表是学术科学的通货
失味点
currency 兼含“货币”与“流通中、当下通用”两义,中文只能取一支。取“通货”保住了经济交换的隐喻(发表可换取职位、经费、晋升),但丢了“通行性”;取“通行证”则相反。
学习提示
currency、market、capital 这类经济隐喻在科学社会学文献中成体系出现,读时留意作者是否在用市场逻辑解释学术行为。
〔注34〕
原文
fitness;optimality model
直译
适应度;最优性模型
失味点
fitness 在进化生物学固定译“适应度”(个体留下后代的能力),此处被借用来描述研究者在一个学术生态中的“被选择”概率。作者特意给 'fitness' 加上引号,正是提示这是隐喻;若译作“适合度”或“竞争力”,隐喻的来源(自然选择)就断了。
学习提示
见到带引号的术语,多半是作者在跨领域借用概念,引号本身就是提示。
〔注35〕
原文
researchers acting to maximize their 'fitness' should spend most of their effort...
直译
以使适应度最大化为准则的研究者,应当把大部分精力……
失味点
此处 should 不是“应该这样做”的规范建议,而是模型推演出的“若按该准则行动,就会如此”的预测义。中文“应当”极易被读成作者在提倡“多追新、少做确证”,恰恰与本文立场相反——作者随后正是要求改变激励以阻止这种策略。
学习提示
should 在数学建模与最优化表述中通常表“由条件推出的结果”,读时先分清它是谁的视角。
〔注36〕
原文
These cautions are not a rationale for inaction.
直译
这些告诫并不是不作为的理由
失味点
rationale 指“为某项行动提供的理由体系、理据”,比 reason 更正式、更成体系;中文“理由”偏轻,“借口”又带贬义。此句还是先发制人的否定(作者刚列完风险,立即堵住“所以什么都别做”的推论),若简化为“我们仍应有所作为”,这一防御性的修辞动作就消失了。
学习提示
读到“X is not a reason to Y”时要意识到,作者是在预先反驳一个读者很可能自行得出的推论。
〔注37〕
原文
a combination of brilliant hypothesizing and blind luck
直译
绝妙的假设与纯粹的运气之结合
失味点
把“天才的猜想”与“瞎猫碰死耗子般的运气”并列,是作者刻意的谦抑与自嘲。中文若把 blind luck 雅化为“偶然的机遇”,并列的落差消失,语气变得平板。
学习提示
并列结构里若一项极雅、一项极俗,通常是作者在自我解嘲,翻译时应保住这种不对称。
〔注38〕
原文
a winnowing of many possibilities to the broadly enacted few
直译
从众多可能性中簸选
失味点
winnow 原指借风把谷壳吹走、留下谷粒(扬场、簸谷),隐喻“大量尝试后经淘汰只留下少数”。中文常译“筛选”,但筛选隐含“按既定标准逐条挑”,而 winnow 强调“数量庞大、过程粗糙、靠淘汰而非挑选”。
学习提示
与 cherry-picking(专挑最好的)恰成对照——winnowing 是去芜存菁的正当过程,cherry-picking 是只挑对自己有利的。
〔注39〕
原文
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.
直译
第一条原则是,你绝不能欺骗自己——而你是最容易被自己欺骗的人。
失味点
first principle(s) 在物理学语境固定译“第一性原理”(不依赖经验拟合、从最基本公理出发),而 Feynman 本人正是这一用语的代表人物。但此处他说的是“首要准则”,若顺势译作“第一性原理”,读者会误以为他在讲还原论方法,反而丢掉这句话的伦理告诫意味。另 fool yourself 是口语,译“自欺”会带上道德与哲学色彩(如“自欺欺人”),比原文更重。
学习提示
同一短语在作者的专业领域有固定译法,但要看句法位置——作表语并带 is that 从句时,多半用的是日常义。

附录 · 英文原文

以下为未经改动的英文原文(由 Europe PMC 全文 XML 抽取),用于与上方译文对照。 参考文献保留英文著录格式,未作翻译。

A manifesto for reproducible science

Authors: Munafò Marcus R; Nosek Brian A; Bishop Dorothy V M; Button Katherine S; Chambers Christopher D; Percie du Sert Nathalie; Simonsohn Uri; Wagenmakers Eric-Jan; Ware Jennifer J; Ioannidis John P A

Journal: Nature Human Behaviour 2017;1(1):0021 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-016-0021 PMCID: PMC7610724

Abstract

AbstractImproving the reliability and efficiency of scientific research will increase the credibility of the published scientific literature and accelerate discovery. Here we argue for the adoption of measures to optimize key elements of the scientific process: methods, reporting and dissemination, reproducibility, evaluation and incentives. There is some evidence from both simulations and empirical studies supporting the likely effectiveness of these measures, but their broad adoption by researchers, institutions, funders and journals will require iterative evaluation and improvement. We discuss the goals of these measures, and how they can be implemented, in the hope that this will facilitate action toward improving the transparency, reproducibility and efficiency of scientific research.Subject terms: Social sciences


What proportion of published research is likely to be false? Low sample size, small effect sizes, data dredging (also known as P-hacking), conflicts of interest, large numbers of scientists working competitively in silos without combining their efforts, and so on, may conspire to dramatically increase the probability that a published finding is incorrect1. The field of metascience — the scientific study of science itself — is flourishing and has generated substantial empirical evidence for the existence and prevalence of threats to efficiency in knowledge accumulation (refs 2,3,4,5,6,7; Fig. 1).

[图 Figure 1] Threats to reproducible science.An idealized version of the hypothetico-deductive model of the scientific method is shown. Various potential threats to this model exist (indicated in red), including lack of replication5, hypothesizing after the results are known (HARKing)7, poor study design, low statistical power2, analytical flexibility51, P-hacking4, publication bias3 and lack of data sharing6. Together these will serve to undermine the robustness of published research, and may also impact on the ability of science to self-correct.

Data from many fields suggests reproducibility is lower than is desirable8,9,10,11,12,13,14; one analysis estimates that 85% of biomedical research efforts are wasted14, while 90% of respondents to a recent survey in Nature agreed that there is a ‘reproducibility crisis’15. Whether ‘crisis’ is the appropriate term to describe the current state or trajectory of science is debatable, but accumulated evidence indicates that there is substantial room for improvement with regard to research practices to maximize the efficiency of the research community's use of the public's financial investment in research.

Here we propose a series of measures that we believe will improve research efficiency and robustness of scientific findings by directly targeting specific threats to reproducible science. We argue for the adoption, evaluation and ongoing improvement of these measures to optimize the pace and efficiency of knowledge accumulation. The measures are organized into the following categories16: methods, reporting and dissemination, reproducibility, evaluation and incentives. They are not intended to be exhaustive, but provide a broad, practical and evidence-based set of actions that can be implemented by researchers, institutions, journals and funders. The measures and their current implementation are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1 A manifesto for reproducible science.

Theme Proposal Examples of initiatives/potential solutions (extent of current adoption) Stakeholder(s)
Methods Protecting against cognitive biases All of the initiatives listed below (* to **)Blinding () J, F
Improving methodological training Rigorous training in statistics and research methods for future researchers ()Rigorous continuing education in statistics and methods for researchers () I, F
Independent methodological support Involvement of methodologists in research (**)Independent oversight (*) F
Collaboration and team science Multi-site studies/distributed data collection ()Team-science consortia () I, F
Reporting and dissemination Promoting study pre-registration Registered Reports ()Open Science Framework () J, F
Improving the quality of reporting Use of reporting checklists (**)Protocol checklists (*) J
Protecting against conflicts of interest Disclosure of conflicts of interest (**)Exclusion/containment of financial and non-financial conflicts of interest () J
Reproducibility Encouraging transparency and open science Open data, materials, software and so on (* to )Pre-registration (** for clinical trials, * for other studies) J, F, R
Evaluation Diversifying peer review Preprints (* in biomedical/behavioural sciences, **** in physical sciences)Pre- and post-publication peer review, for example, Publons, PubMed Commons (*) J
Incentives Rewarding open and reproducible practices Badges ()Registered Reports ()Transparency and Openness Promotion guidelines ()Funding replication studies ()Open science practices in hiring and promotion (*) J, I, F

The problem

A hallmark of scientific creativity is the ability to see novel and unexpected patterns in data. John Snow's identification of links between cholera and water supply17, Paul Broca's work on language lateralization18 and Jocelyn Bell Burnell's discovery of pulsars19 are examples of breakthroughs achieved by interpreting observations in a new way. However, a major challenge for scientists is to be open to new and important insights while simultaneously avoiding being misled by our tendency to see structure in randomness. The combination of apophenia (the tendency to see patterns in random data), confirmation bias (the tendency to focus on evidence that is in line with our expectations or favoured explanation) and hindsight bias (the tendency to see an event as having been predictable only after it has occurred) can easily lead us to false conclusions20. Thomas Levenson documents the example of astronomers who became convinced they had seen the fictitious planet Vulcan because their contemporary theories predicted its existence21. Experimenter effects are an example of this kind of bias22.

Over-interpretation of noise is facilitated by the extent to which data analysis is rapid, flexible and automated23. In a high-dimensional dataset, there may be hundreds or thousands of reasonable alternative approaches to analysing the same data24,25. For example, in a systematic review of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, Carp showed that there were almost as many unique analytical pipelines as there were studies26. If several thousand potential analytical pipelines can be applied to high-dimensional data, the generation of false-positive findings is highly likely. For example, applying almost 7,000 analytical pipelines to a single fMRI dataset resulted in over 90% of brain voxels showing significant activation in at least one analysis27.

During data analysis it can be difficult for researchers to recognize P-hacking28 or data dredging because confirmation and hindsight biases can encourage the acceptance of outcomes that fit expectations or desires as appropriate, and the rejection of outcomes that do not as the result of suboptimal designs or analyses. Hypotheses may emerge that fit the data and are then reported without indication or recognition of their post hoc origin7. This, unfortunately, is not scientific discovery, but self-deception29. Uncontrolled, it can dramatically increase the false discovery rate. We need measures to counter the natural tendency of enthusiastic scientists who are motivated by discovery to see patterns in noise.

Methods

In this section we describe measures that can be implemented when performing research (including, for example, study design, methods, statistics, and collaboration).

Protecting against cognitive biases. There is a substantial literature on the difficulty of avoiding cognitive biases. An effective solution to mitigate self-deception and unwanted biases is blinding. In some research contexts, participants and data collectors can be blinded to the experimental condition that participants are assigned to, and to the research hypotheses, while the data analyst can be blinded to key parts of the data. For example, during data preparation and cleaning, the identity of experimental conditions or the variable labels can be masked so that the output is not interpretable in terms of the research hypothesis. In some physical sciences this approach has been extended to include deliberate perturbations in or masking of data to allow data preparation (for example, identification of outliers) to proceed without the analyst being able to see the corresponding results30. Pre-registration of the study design, primary outcome(s) and analysis plan (see ‘Promoting study pre-registration’ section’, below) is a highly effective form of blinding because the data do not exist and the outcomes are not yet known.

Improving methodological training. Research design and statistical analysis are mutually dependent. Common misperceptions, such as the interpretation of P values31, limitations of null-hypothesis significance testing32, the meaning and importance of statistical power2, the accuracy of reported effect sizes33, and the likelihood that a sample size that generated a statistically significant finding will also be adequate to replicate a true finding34, could all be addressed through improved statistical training. Similarly, basic design principles are important, such as blinding to reduce experimenter bias, randomization or counterbalancing to control for confounding, and the use of within-subjects designs, where possible, to maximize power. However, integrative training in research practices that can protect oneself against cognitive biases and the effects of distorted incentives is arguably more important. Moreover, statistical and methodological best practices are under constant revision and improvement, so that senior as well as junior researchers need continuing methodological education, not least because much training of early-career researchers is informal and flows from their supervisor or mentor. A failure to adopt advances in methodology — such as the very slow progress in increasing statistical power35,36 — may be partly a function of failing to inculcate a continuing professional education and development ethic.

Without formal requirements for continuing education, the most effective solutions may be to develop educational resources that are accessible, easy-to-digest and immediately and effectively applicable to research (for example, brief, web-based modules for specific topics, and combinations of modules that are customized for particular research applications). A modular approach simplifies the process of iterative updating of those materials. Demonstration software and hands-on examples may also make the lessons and implications particularly tangible to researchers at any career stage: the Experimental Design Assistant (https://eda.nc3rs.org.uk) supports research design for whole animal experiments, while P-hacker (http://shinyapps.org/apps/p-hacker/) shows just how easy it is to generate apparently statistically significant findings by exploiting analytic flexibility.

Implementing independent methodological support. The need for independent methodological support is well-established in some areas — many clinical trials, for example, have multidisciplinary trial steering committees to provide advice and oversee the design and conduct of the trial. The need for these committees grew out of the well-understood financial conflicts of interest that exist in many clinical trials. The sponsor of a trial may be the company manufacturing the product, and any intentional or unintentional influence can distort the study design, analysis and interpretation of results for the ultimate financial benefit of the manufacturer at the cost of the accuracy of the science and the health benefit to the consumers37,38. Non-financial conflicts of interest also exist, such as the beliefs and preconceptions of individual scientists and the stakes that researchers have in obtaining publishable results in order to progress their career39,40. Including independent researchers (particularly methodologists with no personal investment in a research topic) in the design, monitoring, analysis or interpretation of research outcomes may mitigate some of those influences, and can be done either at the level of the individual research project or through a process facilitated by a funding agency (see Box 1).

Encouraging collaboration and team science. Studies of statistical power persistently find it to be below (sometimes well below) 50%, across both time and the different disciplines studied2,35,36. Low statistical power increases the likelihood of obtaining both false-positive and false-negative results2, meaning that it offers no advantage if the purpose is to accumulate knowledge. Despite this, low-powered research persists because of dysfunctional incentives, poor understanding of the consequences of low power, and lack of resources to improve power. Team science is a solution to the latter problem — instead of relying on the limited resources of single investigators, distributed collaboration across many study sites facilitates high-powered designs and greater potential for testing generalizability across the settings and populations sampled. This also brings greater scope for multiple theoretical and disciplinary perspectives, and a diverse range of research cultures and experiences, to be incorporated into a research project.

Multi-centre and collaborative efforts have a long and successful tradition in fields such as randomized controlled trials in some areas of clinical medicine, and in genetic association analyses, and have improved the robustness of the resulting research literatures. Multi-site collaborative projects have also been advocated for other types of research, such as animal studies41–43, in an effort to maximize their power, enhance standardization, and optimize transparency and protection from biases. The Many Labs projects illustrate this potential in the social and behavioural sciences, with dozens of laboratories implementing the same research protocol to obtain highly precise estimates of effect sizes, and evaluate variability across samples and settings44,45. It is also possible, and desirable, to incorporate a team science ethos into student training (see Box 2).

Box 1: Independent oversight: the case of CHDI Foundation.CHDI Foundation — a privately-funded non-profit drug-development organization targeting Huntington's disease — convened a working group in 2013 to identify practical and viable steps that could be taken to help ensure the rigor of their research76. One concrete product of this meeting was the establishment of the Independent Statistical Standing Committee (ISSC; http://chdifoundation.org/independent-statistical-standing-committee/) designed to provide independent, unbiased and objective evaluation and expert advice regarding all aspects of experimental design and statistics. CHDI has made this resource available to the wider Huntington's disease research community on a priority basis. The ISSC is comprised of individuals with specific expertise in research design and statistics. Critically, committee members are not themselves engaged in Huntington's disease research, and have no investment in study results, or other conflicts of interest. The committee provides a number of services, including (but not limited to) provision of expert assistance in developing protocols and statistical analysis plans, and evaluation of prepared study protocols. Their oversight and input, particularly at the study design stage, may mitigate low statistical power, inadequate study design, and flexibility in data analysis and reporting6,71. As recently highlighted, “asking questions at the design stage can save headaches at the analysis stage: careful data collection can greatly simplify analysis and make it more rigorous”77.

Box 2: Distributed student projects.Student assessment requirements, and limited access to populations of interest, may hinder extensive collaboration within a single institution, but it could be achieved across multiple institutions in the form of a distributed student project. Under this model, academics and students from several institutions would form a consortium, collaboratively develop a research question, protocol and analysis plan, and publicly pre-register it prior to data collection. The protocol would be implemented by each student at each participating centre, and the resulting data pooled for analysis. Consortium meetings before and after data collection could be used to integrate training in research design, while offering opportunities for creative input from the students. Conclusions based on results would be mutually agreed in preparation for wider dissemination, using inclusive authorship conventions such as those adopted by genetic consortia. Students would learn rigorous research methods through active participation in research that is sufficiently well designed and conducted to be genuinely meaningful. Critically, collaborative team science would be instilled at an early stage of training.The Collaborative Replications and Education Project (CREP; https://osf.io/wfc6u/) is an example of this concept in psychology, albeit in a more centralized form. A coordinating team identifies recently published research that could be replicated in the context of a semester-long undergraduate course on research methods. A central commons provides the materials and guidance to incorporate the replications into projects or classes, and the data collected across sites are aggregated into manuscripts for publication. The Pipeline78 and Many Labs44,45 projects also offer opportunities to contribute to large-scale replication efforts with coordinated data collection across many locations simultaneously.

Reporting and dissemination

In this section we describe measures that can be implemented when communicating research (including, for example, reporting standards, study pre-registration, and disclosing conflicts of interest).

Promoting study pre-registration. Pre-registration of study protocols for randomized controlled trials in clinical medicine has become standard practice46. In its simplest form it may simply comprise the registration of the basic study design, but it can also include a detailed pre-specification of the study procedures, outcomes and statistical analysis plan. It was introduced to address two problems: publication bias and analytical flexibility (in particular outcome switching in the case of clinical medicine). Publication bias47, also known as the file drawer problem48, refers to the fact that many more studies are conducted than published. Studies that obtain positive and novel results are more likely to be published than studies that obtain negative results or report replications of prior results47,49,50. The consequence is that the published literature indicates stronger evidence for findings than exists in reality. Outcome switching refers to the possibility of changing the outcomes of interest in the study depending on the observed results. A researcher may include ten variables that could be considered outcomes of the research, and — once the results are known — intentionally or unintentionally select the subset of outcomes that show statistically significant results as the outcomes of interest. The consequence is an increase in the likelihood that reported results are spurious by leveraging chance, while negative evidence gets ignored. This is one of several related research practices that can inflate spurious findings when analysis decisions are made with knowledge of the observed data, such as selection of models, exclusion rules and covariates. Such data-contingent analysis decisions constitute what has become known as P-hacking51, and pre-registration can protect against all of these.

The strongest form of pre-registration involves both registering the study (with a commitment to make the results public) and closely pre-specifying the study design, primary outcome and analysis plan in advance of conducting the study or knowing the outcomes of the research. In principle, this addresses publication bias by making all research discoverable, whether or not it is ultimately published, allowing all of the evidence about a finding to be obtained and evaluated. It also addresses outcome switching, and P-hacking more generally, by requiring the researcher to articulate analytical decisions prior to observing the data, so that these decisions remain data-independent. Critically, it also makes clear the distinction between data-independent confirmatory research that is important for testing hypotheses, and data-contingent exploratory research that is important for generating hypotheses.

While pre-registration is now common in some areas of clinical medicine (due to requirements by journals and regulatory bodies, such as the Food and Drug Administration in the United States and the European Medicines Agency in the European Union), it is rare in the social and behavioural sciences. However, support for study pre-registration is increasing; websites such as the Open Science Framework (http://osf.io/) and AsPredicted (http://AsPredicted.org/) offer services to pre-register studies, the Preregistration Challenge offers education and incentives to conduct pre-registered research (http://cos.io/prereg), and journals are adopting the Registered Reports publishing format52,53 to encourage pre-registration and add results-blind peer review (see Box 3).

Improving the quality of reporting. Pre-registration will improve discoverability of research, but discoverability does not guarantee usability. Poor usability reflects difficulty in evaluating what was done, in reusing the methodology to assess reproducibility, and in incorporating the evidence into systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Improving the quality and transparency in the reporting of research is necessary to address this. The Transparency and Openness Promotion (TOP) guidelines offer standards as a basis for journals and funders to incentivize or require greater transparency in planning and reporting of research54. TOP provides principles for how transparency and usability can be increased, while other guidelines provide concrete steps for how to maximize the quality of reporting in particular areas. For example, the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement provides guidance for clear, complete and accurate reporting of randomized controlled trials55–57. Over 300 reporting guidelines now exist for observational studies, prognostic studies, predictive models, diagnostic tests, systematic reviews and meta-analyses in humans, a large variety of studies using different laboratory methods, and animal studies. The Equator Network (http://www.equator-network.org/) aggregates these guidelines to improve discoverability58. There are also guidelines for improving the reporting of research planning; for example, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement for reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses59, and PRISMA-P for protocols of systematic reviews60. The Preregistration Challenge workflow and the pre-registration recipe for social-behavioural research61 also illustrate guidelines for reporting research plans.

The success of reporting guidelines depends on their adoption and effective use. The social and behavioural sciences are behind the biomedical sciences in their adoption of reporting guidelines for research, although with rapid adoption of the TOP guidelines and related developments by journals and funders that gap may be closing. However, improved reporting may be insufficient on its own to maximize research quality. Reporting guidelines are easily perceived by researchers as bureaucratic exercises rather than means of improving research and reporting. Even with pre-registration of clinical trials, one study observed that just 13% of trials published outcomes completely consistent with the pre-registered commitments. Most publications of the trials did not report pre-registered outcomes and added new outcomes that were not part of the registered design (see www.COMPare-trials.org). Franco and colleagues observed similar findings in psychology62; using protocol pre-registrations and public data from the Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences project (http://www.tessexperiments.org/), they found that 40% of published reports failed to mention one or more of the experimental conditions of the experiments, and approximately 70% of published reports failed to mention one or more of the outcome measures included in the study. Moreover, outcome measures that were not included were much more likely to be negative results and associated with smaller effect sizes than outcome measures that were included.

The positive outcome of reporting guidelines is that they make it possible to detect and study these behaviours and their impact. Otherwise, these behaviours are simply unknowable in any systematic way. The negative outcome is the empirical evidence that reporting guidelines may be necessary, but will not alone be sufficient, to address reporting biases. The impact of guidelines and how best to optimize their use and impact will be best assessed by randomized trials (see Box 4).

Box 3: Registered Reports.The Registered Reports (RR) initiative seeks to eliminate various forms of bias in hypothesis-driven research52,53, and in particular, the evaluation of a study based on the results. Unlike conventional journal articles, RRs split the peer review process into two stages, before and after results are known. At the first stage, reviewers and editors assess a detailed protocol that includes the study rationale, procedure and a detailed analysis plan. Following favourable reviews (and probably revision to meet strict methodological standards), the journal offers in-principle acceptance: publication of study outcomes is guaranteed provided the authors adhere to the approved protocol, the study meets pre-specified quality checks, and conclusions are appropriately evidence-bound. Once the study is completed, the authors resubmit a complete manuscript that includes the results and discussion. The article is published at the end of this two-stage process. By accepting articles before results are known, RRs prevent publication bias. By reviewing the hypotheses and analysis plans in advance, RRs should also help neutralize P-hacking and HARKing (hypothesizing after the results are known) by authors, and CARKing (critiquing after the results are known) by reviewers with their own investments in the research outcomes, although empirical evidence will be required to confirm that this is the case.Perhaps the most commonly voiced objection to RRs is that the format somehow limits exploration or creativity by requiring authors to adhere to a pre-specified methodology. However, RRs place no restrictions on creative analysis practices or serendipity. Authors are free to report the outcomes of any unregistered exploratory analyses, provided such tests are clearly labelled as post hoc. Thus, the sole requirement is that exploratory outcomes are identified transparently as exploratory (for a list of frequently asked questions see https://cos.io/rr/#faq). Of course, RRs are not intended for research that is solely exploratory.As of November 2016, RRs have been adopted by over 40 journals, including Nature Human Behaviour, covering a wide range of life, social and physical sciences (for a curated list see https://cos.io/rr/#journals). The concept also opens the door to alternative forms of research funding that place a premium on transparency and reproducibility. For example, authors could submit a detailed proposal before they have funding for their research. Following simultaneous review by both the funder and the journal, the strongest proposals would be offered financial support by the funder and in-principle acceptance for publication by the journal (https://cos.io/rr/#funders).

Box 4: Evidence for the effectiveness of reporting guidelines.In medicine there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of CONSORT guidelines — journals that do not endorse the CONSORT statement show poorer reporting quality compared with endorsing journals79. For the ARRIVE (Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments) guidelines80, studies comparing the reporting of ARRIVE items in specific fields of research before and after the guidelines were published report mixed results81–83. A randomized controlled trial is in progress to assess the impact of mandating a completed ARRIVE checklist with manuscript submissions on the quality of reporting in published articles (https://ecrf1.clinicaltrials.ed.ac.uk/iicarus). The success of these efforts will require journals and funders to adopt guidelines and support the community's iterative evaluation and improvement cycle.

Reproducibility

In this section we describe measures that can be implemented to support verification of research (including, for example, sharing data and methods).

Promoting transparency and open science. Science is a social enterprise: independent and collaborative groups work to accumulate knowledge as a public good. The credibility of scientific claims is rooted in the evidence supporting them, which includes the methodology applied, the data acquired, and the process of methodology implementation, data analysis and outcome interpretation. Claims become credible by the community reviewing, critiquing, extending and reproducing the supporting evidence. However, without transparency, claims only achieve credibility based on trust in the confidence or authority of the originator. Transparency is superior to trust.

Open science refers to the process of making the content and process of producing evidence and claims transparent and accessible to others. Transparency is a scientific ideal, and adding ‘open’ should therefore be redundant. In reality, science often lacks openness: many published articles are not available to people without a personal or institutional subscription, and most data, materials and code supporting research outcomes are not made accessible, for example, in a public repository (refs 63,64; Box 5).

Very little of the research process (for example, study protocols, analysis workflows, peer review) is accessible because, historically, there have been few opportunities to make it accessible even if one wanted to do so. This has motivated calls for open access, open data and open workflows (including analysis pipelines), but there are substantial barriers to meeting these ideals, including vested financial interests (particularly in scholarly publishing) and few incentives for researchers to pursue open practices. For example, current incentive structures promote the publication of ‘clean’ narratives, which may require the incomplete reporting of study procedures or results. Nevertheless, change is occurring. The TOP guidelines54,65 promote open practices, while an increasing number of journals and funders require open practices (for example, open data), with some offering their researchers free, immediate open-access publication with transparent post-publication peer review (for example, the Wellcome Trust, with the launch of Wellcome Open Research). Policies to promote open science can include reporting guidelines or specific disclosure statements (see Box 6). At the same time, commercial and non-profit organizations are building new infrastructure such as the Open Science Framework to make transparency easy and desirable for researchers.

Box 5: Data sharing.Sharing data in public repositories offers field-wide advantages in terms of accountability, data longevity, efficiency and quality (for example, reanalyses may detect crucial mistakes or even data fabrication)84. Unfortunately, many scientific disciplines, including most of those devoted to the study of human behaviour, do not have a culture that values open data6. In the past, data sharing has rarely been enforced or facilitated. Recent initiatives, however, aim to change the normative culture. Hopefully, these initiatives will change the culture on data sharing. Once accepted as the norm, we doubt that data sharing will ever go out of fashion. Transparency and Openness Promotion (TOP) In 2015, Nosek and colleagues54 proposed author guidelines to help journals and funders adopt transparency and reproducibility policies. As of November 2016 there were 757 journal and 64 organization signatories to the TOP guidelines. For example, the journal Science decided to “publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are available to any researcher for purposes of reproducing or extending the analysis”65 and the conglomerate of Springer Nature journals adopted similar data-sharing policies. Badges to acknowledge open-science practices The Center for Open Science has suggested that journals assign a badge to articles with open data (as well as to other open practices such as pre-registration and open materials). The main purpose of the badges is to signal that the journal values these practices. The journal Psychological Science has adopted these badges, and there is evidence that the open data badge has had a positive effect, increasing data sharing by more than tenfold (Fig. 2). The Peer Reviewers' Openness Initiative Researchers who sign this initiative (https://opennessinitiative.org) pledge that as reviewers they will not offer comprehensive review for any manuscript that does not make data publicly available without a clear reason85. Requirements from funding agencies In recent years, prominent funding agencies such as Research Councils UK in the United Kingdom and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and National Science Foundation (NSF) in the United States have increased pressure on researchers to share data. For instance, the 2015 NIH Public Access Plan (https://grants.nih.gov/grants/NIH-Public-Access-Plan.pdf) states: “NIH intends to make public access to digital scientific data the standard for all NIH-funded research”. Since 2010, NSF requires submission of a data-management plan that stipulates how data will be stored and shared.

Box 6: Disclosure.Full disclosure refers to the process of describing in full the study design and data collected that underlie the results reported, rather than a curated version of the design, and/or a subset of the data collected. The need for disclosure is clear: in order to adequately evaluate results we need to know how they were obtained. For example, the informational value of a dependent variable exhibiting an effect of interest is different if only one variable was collected or if fifteen were. The probability of a single variable achieving P < 0.05 just by chance is 5%, but the probability of one of fifteen variables achieving P < 0.05 is 54%1. It is obvious that cherry-picking one from fifteen variables invalidates the results unless it is clear that this has happened. If readers know, then they can adjust their interpretation accordingly. From this simple fact it follows that if authors do not tell us whether they collected one or fifteen variables readers cannot evaluate their research51.The simplest form of disclosure is for authors to assure readers via an explicit statement in their article that they are disclosing the data fully. This can be seen as a simple item of reporting guidance where extra emphasis is placed on some aspects that are considered most essential to disclose. For example, including the following 21-word statement: “We report how we determined our sample size, all data exclusions (if any), all manipulations, and all measures in the study”86. Alternatively, a more complex, but also more enforceable and accountable process is for journals to require explicit and specific disclosure statements. The journal Psychological Science, for example, now requires authors to “Confirm that (a) the total number of excluded observations and (b) the reasons for making these exclusions have been reported in the Method section(s)”87.

Evaluation

In this section we describe measures that can be implemented when evaluating research (including, for example, peer review).

Diversifying peer review. For most of the history of scientific publishing, two functions have been confounded — evaluation and dissemination. Journals have provided dissemination via sorting and delivering content to the research community, and gatekeeping via peer review to determine what is worth disseminating. However, with the advent of the internet, individual researchers are no longer dependent on publishers to bind, print and mail their research to subscribers. Dissemination is now easy and can be controlled by researchers themselves. For example, preprint services (arXiv for some physical sciences, bioRxiv and PeerJ for the life sciences, engrXiv for engineering, PsyArXiv for psychology, and SocArXiv and the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) for the social sciences) facilitate easy sharing, sorting and discovery of research prior to publication. This dramatically accelerates the dissemination of information to the research community.

With increasing ease of dissemination, the role of publishers as a gatekeeper is declining. Nevertheless, the other role of publishing — evaluation — remains a vital part of the research enterprise. Conventionally, a journal editor will select a limited number of reviewers to assess the suitability of a submission for a particular journal. However, more diverse evaluation processes are now emerging, allowing the collective wisdom of the scientific community to be harnessed66. For example, some preprint services support public comments on manuscripts, a form of pre-publication review that can be used to improve the manuscript. Other services, such as PubMed Commons and PubPeer, offer public platforms to comment on published works facilitating post-publication peer review. At the same time, some journals are trialling ‘results-free’ review, where editorial decisions to accept are based solely on review of the rationale and study methods alone (that is, results-blind)67.

Both pre- and post-publication peer review mechanisms dramatically accelerate and expand the evaluation process68. By sharing preprints, researchers can obtain rapid feedback on their work from a diverse community, rather than waiting several months for a few reviews in the conventional, closed peer review process. Using post-publication services, reviewers can make positive and critical commentary on articles instantly, rather than relying on the laborious, uncertain and lengthy process of authoring a commentary and submitting it to the publishing journal for possible publication, eventually.

As public forms of pre- and post-publication review, these new services introduce the potential for new forms of credit and reputation enhancement69. In the conventional model, peer review is done privately, anonymously and purely as a service. With public commenting systems, a reviewer that chooses to be identifiable may gain (or lose) reputation based on the quality of review. There are a number of possible and perceived risks of non-anonymous reviewing that reviewers must consider and research must evaluate, but there is evidence that open peer review improves the quality of reviews received70. The opportunity for accelerated scholarly communication may both improve the pace of discovery and diversify the means of being an active contributor to scientific discourse.

Incentives

Publication is the currency of academic science and increases the likelihood of employment, funding, promotion and tenure. However, not all research is equally publishable. Positive, novel and clean results are more likely to be published than negative results, replications and results with loose ends; as a consequence, researchers are incentivized to produce the former, even at the cost of accuracy40. These incentives ultimately increase the likelihood of false positives in the published literature71. Shifting the incentives therefore offers an opportunity to increase the credibility and reproducibility of published results. For example, with simulations, Munafò and Higginson developed an optimality model that predicted the most rational research strategy, in terms of the proportion of research effort spent on seeking novel results rather than on confirmatory studies, and the amount of research effort per exploratory study72. This showed that, for parameter values derived from the scientific literature, researchers acting to maximize their ‘fitness’ should spend most of their effort seeking novel results and conduct small studies that have a statistical power of only 10–40%. Critically, their model suggests that altering incentive structures, by considering more of a researcher's output and giving less weight to strikingly novel findings when making appointment and promotion decisions, would encourage a change in researcher behaviour that would ultimately improve the scientific value of research.

Funders, publishers, societies, institutions, editors, reviewers and authors all contribute to the cultural norms that create and sustain dysfunctional incentives. Changing the incentives is therefore a problem that requires a coordinated effort by all stakeholders to alter reward structures. There will always be incentives for innovative outcomes — those who discover new things will be rewarded more than those who do not. However, there can also be incentives for efficiency and effectiveness — those who conduct rigorous, transparent and reproducible research could be rewarded more than those who do not. There are promising examples of effective interventions for nudging incentives. For example, journals are adopting badges to acknowledge open practices (Fig. 2), Registered Reports as a results-blind publishing model (see Box 3) and TOP guidelines to promote openness and transparency. Funders are also adopting transparency requirements, and piloting funding mechanisms to promote reproducibility such as the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and the US National Science Foundation's Directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, both of which have announced funding opportunities for replication studies. Institutions are wrestling with policy and infrastructure adjustments to promote data sharing, and there are hints of open-science practices becoming part of hiring and performance evaluation (for example, http://www.nicebread.de/open-science-hiring-practices/). Collectively, and at scale, such efforts can shift incentives such that what is good for the scientist is also good for science — rigorous, transparent and reproducible research practices producing credible results.

[图 Figure 2] The impact of introducing badges for data sharing.In January 2014, the journal Psychological Science (PSCI) introduced badges for articles with open data. Immediately afterwards, the proportion of articles with open data increased steeply, and by October 2015, 38% of articles in Psychological Science had open data. For comparison journals (Clinical Psychological Science (CPS), Developmental Psychology (DP), Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition (JEPLMC) and Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JPSP)) the proportion of articles with open data remained uniformly low. Figure adapted from ref. 75, PLoS.

Conclusion

The challenges to reproducible science are systemic and cultural, but that does not mean they cannot be met. The measures we have described constitute practical and achievable steps toward improving rigor and reproducibility. All of them have shown some effectiveness, and are well suited to wider adoption, evaluation and improvement. Equally, these proposals are not an exhaustive list; there are many other nascent and maturing ideas for making research practices more efficient and reliable73. Offering a solution to a problem does not guarantee its effectiveness, and making changes to cultural norms and incentives can spur additional behavioural changes that are difficult to anticipate. Some solutions may be ineffective or even harmful to the efficiency and reliability of science, even if conceptually they appear sensible.

The field of metascience (or metaresearch) is growing rapidly, with over 2,000 relevant publications accruing annually16. Much of that literature constitutes the evaluation of existing practices and the identification of alternative approaches. What was previously taken for granted may be questioned, such as widely used statistical methods; for example, the most popular methods and software for spatial extent analysis in fMRI imaging were recently shown to produce unacceptably high false-positive rates74. Proposed solutions may also give rise to other challenges; for example, while replication is a hallmark for reinforcing trust in scientific results, there is uncertainty about which studies deserve to be replicated and what would be the most efficient replication strategies. Moreover, a recent simulation suggests that replication alone may not suffice to rid us of false results71.

These cautions are not a rationale for inaction. Reproducible research practices are at the heart of sound research and integral to the scientific method. How best to achieve rigorous and efficient knowledge accumulation is a scientific question; the most effective solutions will be identified by a combination of brilliant hypothesizing and blind luck, by iterative examination of the effectiveness of each change, and by a winnowing of many possibilities to the broadly enacted few. True understanding of how best to structure and incentivize science will emerge slowly and will never be finished. That is how science works. The key to fostering a robust metascience that evaluates and improves practices is that the stakeholders of science must not embrace the status quo, but instead pursue self-examination continuously for improvement and self-correction of the scientific process itself.

As Richard Feynman said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.”

Acknowledgements

M.R.M. is a member of the UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies, a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. This work was supported by the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol (MC_UU_12013/6). D.V.M.B. is funded by a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellowship and Programme (grant number 082498/Z/07/Z). N.P.d.S. is employed by the NC3Rs, which is primarily funded by the UK government. J.P.A.I. is funded by an unrestricted gift from S. O'Donnell and B. O'Donnell to the Stanford Prevention Research Center. METRICS is supported by a grant by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The authors are grateful to Don van den Bergh for preparing Fig. 2.

Competing interests

M.R.M, together with C.D.C and D.V.M.B., has received funding from the BBSRC (grant number BB/N019660/1) to convene a workshop on advanced methods for reproducible science, and is chair of the CHDI Foundation Independent Statistical Standing Committee. B.A.N. is executive director of the non-profit Center for Open Science with a mission to increase openness, integrity and reproducibility of research. N.P.d.S. leads the NC3Rs programme of work on experimental design, which developed the ARRIVE guidelines and Experimental Design Assistant. J.J.W. is director, experimental design, at CHDI Management/CHDI Foundation, a non-profit biomedical research organization exclusively dedicated to developing therapeutics for Huntington's disease. The other authors declare no competing interests.

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